Lanworth warned of a “strong” divide in US corn production fortunes even as it hiked its forecast for the national crop by 350m bushels, lifting estimates for wheat production in Australia and Ukraine too.
The consultancy raised by 9.8m tonnes to 965.5m tonnes its forecast for global corn output in 2013-14, overtaking the US Department of Agriculture estimate of 959.8m tonnes.
The upgrade reflected in the main a lift of 2.0 bushels per acre, to 158.5 bushels per acre, in the estimate for the US corn harvest, the world’s biggest, thanks largely to “the absence of extreme warm temperatures in July, combined with outlooks for cool conditions during early August”.
The yield estimate is one of a series of late to come in above the USDA’s current figure of 156.5 bushels per acre, with Macquarie coming in with a 156.8 bushels-per-acre number, and Commodity Weather Group pegging the yield at 159.5 bushels per acre.
However, Lanworth cautioned that its upgraded forecast concealed “widely divergent yield potential” between different states, largely divided on an east-west Midwest basis, thanks to “strong regional differences” in planting conditions and in subsequent rainfall.
This month looks like being the second driest July since 1985.
“Corn could yield up to 6% above trend in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Dakota, and minor production states where planting conditions and rainfall have been favourable,” Lanworth said.
“By contrast, corn yield could fall 3-8% below trend in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin and 11-16% below trend in Kansas and North Dakota, where cold and/or wet planting and establishment conditions have been followed by extremely dry weather.”
The consultancy, which estimated the US crop at 14.0bn bushels, (965.5m tonnes) reported “mild or variable drought stress and impacts from late planting across Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska”.
More on the state of the US crop is set to be revealed by a series of Midwest crop tours next month, kicking off on Monday with one from MDA.
Lanworth raised its forecast for the Ukraine corn crop too, by 2.2m tonnes to 26.4m tonnes, taking it above the USDA estimate, thanks to near-normal temperatures and rainfall in major production districts.
And it lifted its estimate of the Ukraine wheat crop too, by 1.2m tonnes to 19.9m tonnes, after satellite imagery showed “yields may have approached trend”, in contrast to ideas earlier that high spring temperatures may have curtailed productivity.
The Australian crop was upgraded by 600,000 tonnes to 25.7m tonnes “based on above-average July precipitation across all major production areas.
“July soil moisture remains average to above average across all states but Victoria.
“Should relatively normal precipitation persist through August-October, Australia wheat production could reach 29.9m tonnes.”
However, Lanworth reduced by 1.6m tonnes, to 48.4m tonnes, its forecast for the Russian harvest, the latest in a series of industry downgrades.
“Though cool and wet conditions in the Urals and Siberian districts continue to support gains over last year’s low spring wheat yields, updated imagery indicates crop vegetation density across spring wheat production areas of the Volga District is only moderately higher than last year’s low levels,” the consultancy said.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-corn-fortunes-showing-strong-east-west-divide–6111.html)