The United Nation’s latest investigation into climate change reportedly admits the world has been warming at only just over half the rate it had claimed in 2007.
According to the UK’s Daily Mail newspaper, a leaked draft of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest assessment of the state of the climate and global warming – AR5 – says the earth has been warming at a rate of 0.12C each decade since 1951.
But it says the last major IPCC report, released in 2007 and called AR4, claimed the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade.
Australian scientists who have questioned the way the IPCC assessments predict the rate of climate change and the impact of man-made pollution on the earth’s warming, said on Monday the leaked report confirmed forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.
Key Labor climate change figures including shadow minister Mark Butler, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and former Climate Change Minister Penny Wong on Monday ducked questions about how much they relied on IPCC science in introducing their climate policies including the carbon tax.
Incoming Climate Action Minister Greg Hunt declined to comment, saying he would wait until the final version of the AR5 assessment report was released on September 27.
But Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi called for Labor and the Greens to stop pushing the IPCC’s “propaganda” to the public.
The Daily Mail said it had obtained a leaked draft of the summary of the AR5 assessment which admits scientists who contribute to the IPCC accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures, and not taken enough notice of natural variability.
The “summary for policymakers” recognises a global warming “pause” and concedes that climate scientists’ computer models did not predict it.
The Daily Mail’s report says they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997, and that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high.
The newspaper says scientists have admitted large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.
Australian scientist Prof Bob Carter, science policy adviser for the Institute of Public Affairs and one of the leaders of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) said on Monday the science of climate change was not settled.
“Scientific evidence now overwhelmingly indicates that any human warming effect is deeply submerged within planet Earth’s natural variations of temperature,” Prof Carter said.
Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery’s agency refused to comment.
But Australian climate scientists who back the IPCC’s methods said the Daily Mail report was incorrect and had misinterpreted information in the IPCC’s 2007 assessment which contained references to the earth warming by 0.2C.
(Source – http://www.blackseagrain.net/novosti/global-warming-forecasts-wrong-says-un-report)