World total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/15, from the record level forecast for the current season, but then to rise by an average of 1.6 per cent per year over the remainder of the five-year period, exceeding two billion tons by 2016/17, according to the International Grains Council.
While some area expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth is also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18 per cent by the end of the 2018/19, from 20 per cent forecast for 2013/14.
The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over the five years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters, most notably in South America and the Black Sea region.
Soybean and rapeseed/canola production growth is expected to outpace grains and rice, against a background of strong demand from the crushing industry. Combined output growth is projected at an average of 2.1 per cent per annum (p.a.) in the medium term.
Oilseed stocks should recover, but the market is likely to remain relatively tight, with the stock-to-use ratio is seen rising only slightly, to 12 per cent, from 10 per cent anticipated for the end of 2013/14.
The following projections are not intended to be specific forecasts of supply and demand, but rather a medium term view of the general development of the global grains, rice and oilseeds markets in the period to 2018/19, taking into account a number of broad assumptions. These include assumed trends in population growth, prices, agriculture and trade policy, as well as prospects for the global economy.
World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is projected to rise to 2,064 million tons (mt) by 2018/19. Firm demand growth is also anticipated and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18 per cent by the end of the projection period, from 20 per cent forecast for 2013/14.
Assuming average weather conditions, output is expected to remain almost unchanged in 2014/15 as average yields decline from the highs anticipated for the current season, but area continues to expand to meet growing demand against a backdrop of favourable prices. Beyond 2014/15, output is expected to expand at an average of 1.6 per cent p.a.
While some area expansion is forecast, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Average yields are expected to grow by 1.1 per cent p.a. beyond 2014/15, compared to 0.6 per cent for area.
(Source – http://www.blackseagrain.net/novosti/global-grains-supply-forecast-to-dip-this-year)