World wheat production will be smaller than estimated last month as dry weather erodes prospects for the harvest in the U.S., the International Grains Council said.
Global wheat output will be 694 million metric tons in the 2014-15 season, less than an April forecast of 697 million tons and 2.1 percent smaller than the previous year, the London-based IGC said in an e-mailed report today. Production in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, will be 55 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of 59 million tons, the IGC said.
Forty-four percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in poor or very poor condition as of May 25, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, as the Great Plains, the top producing region, experienced drought. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, the global benchmark, rallied to a 14-month high at $7.44 a bushel on May 6, and have since retreated 14 percent in part on speculation recent rainfall improved production potential.
“There are concerns for the situation in the U.S.,” Amy Reynolds, a senior economist with the IGC, said by phone yesterday. “Crop conditions aren’t exactly very good. There’s been some rain recently that has buoyed some people’s hopes, but to be honest it’s getting a bit late for that to help the hard, red winter crop.”
Wheat production in the European Union may be 144.9 million tons, little changed from a previous forecast of 144.8 million, the IGC said. Estimates for Russia, Canada and Ukraine were also left unchanged at 51 million, 29 million, and 20 million tons, respectively. Global inventories of wheat at the end of the 2014-15 season will be 187 million tons, steady with last month’s projection, according to the report.
World production of corn will be 955 million tons, 0.5 percent larger than last month’s forecast of 950 million tons, the IGC said. The agency raised its projection for output in Brazil, the second-biggest exporter, after the U.S., to 71.5 million tons, compared with last month’s forecast of 70.5 million tons.
Corn prices are trading near a 12-week low in Chicago as prospects improve for U.S. production. Eighty-eight percent of the corn crop in the main U.S. growing area was planted as of May 25, matching the average pace for this time in the season after fieldwork was earlier delayed by excess rain in the Midwest, USDA data show.
U.S. corn output may be 350 million tons in 2014-15, the IGC said, leaving its forecast unchanged from last month while below production at 353.7 million tons the prior year. The USDA pegs U.S. production at 353.97 million tons in 2014-15, the highest on record. Global inventories of corn at the end of 2014-15 will be 172 million tons, higher than a previous forecast of 163 million tons, the IGC said.
World production of soybeans will be 284 million tons in 2014-15, up from a previous forecast of 282 million tons, the IGC said. The agency left its outlook for global rice production unchanged at 475 million tons.
(Source – http://www.blackseagrain.net/novosti/world-wheat-output-forecast-cut-by-igc-on-u-s-dryness)