German grain growers cut expectations for the coming season, as dryness takes its tolls, with rape forecasts down 4.6% since last month and wheat forecasts down 4.2%.
The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV), Germany’s main farmer co-operative, has revised down grain expectations this month, citing “too little precipitation” in many areas.
“The reason for this adjustment is that in many parts of Germany dry, warm weather has continued,” the DRV said.
The DRV warns that if there are no rains in the near future “further losses are to be feared”.
Rapeseed forecast cut
The DRV has cut its forecast for 2015 winter rape production by 4.6% to 4.99m tonnes from 5.23m tonnes.
This is 20% down on last year’s record-breaking harvest of 6.24m tonnes.
Germany surpassed France to become the EU’s largest rapeseed producer last year, but some forecasts suggest it will fall back to second place this year.
Globally, rapeseed has bucked a bearish trend in grains since the start of the year, as the Canadian rapeseed cultivar canola hovers near a one-year high in Winnipeg, after some Canadian crop damage.
In May the International Grains Council forecast global rapeseed stocks to drop by 26% in 2015-16, thanks to slowing supply.
Wheat, maize down
The DVE cut its forecast for wheat production 4.2%, to 25.78m tonnes, from a forecast last month of 26.92m tonnes.
This leaves wheat production forecast to fall by 7.2% from last year.
Germany is the EU’s second largest wheat exporter after France.
The outlook for corn was cut by 3.3%, from 4.83m tonnes to 4.67m tonnes, down 9.2% on the previous year.
The DRV also warned about the threat posed to grain quality by pending German fertilizer legislation, warning that the export boom in German grain could only be sustained “with top quality”.
The DVR said it is technical restrictions on necessary fertilizer use “must be prevented”.
European November rapeseed futures were up 0.8% at E377.75 a tonne in afternoon trading.
(Source – http://www.blackseagrain.net/novosti/german-grain-outlook-cut-on-dry-weather)