Coffee producers restated a caution over the Brazilian arabica harvest, warning that investors have a “mistaken view” of sizeable production, and cautioning over the potential for a weather hangover to 2016 output as well.
The Conselho Nacional do Café producers’ group warned that the evidence so far from the Brazilian arabica coffee harvest, which is now reported to be more than half way through, had “consolidated” ideas of damage from an extended drought last year.
“The lack of rain during flowering in September and October last year, and the Indian summer, between December and February, were so intense that coffee trees have failed to reverse the effects of drought stress,” the CNC said.
“The market has a mistaken view of a large harvest in progress,” said the group, which has stood by an expectation of an overall Brazilian coffee harvest of 40.3m-43.25m bags, including 30m-32.15m bags of arabica beans.
Some other commentators, such as Volcafe and the US Department of Agriculture, have forecast output of more than 50m bags, including well over 35m bags of arabica.
The CNC said that crop damage was evident in the main in the reduced development of harvested beans, with evidence from coffee co-operatives saying that it is talking 600 litres of beans to complete a 60-kilogramme bag, compared with the typical 480 litres.
Only about 15% of beans are making the 17 sieve grade which is the most demanded for export, compared with a typical 30%.
Even irrigated coffee plantations are showing some crop damage, with the lack of rainfall reducing the amount of water available, while high temperatures promoted evaporation.
‘Negatively impact 2016’
The council also highlighted the delay to the harvest, which can also mean a compromised crop, in meaning that cherries are in a range of developmental progress when they are reaped.
Coffee co-operative giant Cooxupe this week reported that its harvest was 41.6% completed, compared with the 64.6% reaped a year ago.
And Silvas Brasiliero, the CNC executive president, cautioned over the potential for setbacks from poor weather to Brazilian output prospects to extend into next year too.
“The climate has not returned to normal in the producing areas of Brazil, which certainly should negatively impact the volume to be harvested in 2016,” he said.
However, he added that “it is necessary we wait the end the current harvest and the beginning of the next flowering so we can better assess prospects for the coming year”.
‘More measures to make a bag’
Ideas of a lower harvest were supported in Araguari, in the west of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top coffee-growing state, by Tulio Rodrigues da Cunha, president of the area’s rural syndicate, who said this week that it would see a drop in production, although it was not possible yet to say how much.
“We are also using more measures to make a bag of coffee,” Mr Cunha added.
However, in Parana, the official agricultural agency, Dera, stuck with ideas of a bigger harvest in the state, up 13% at 71,928 tonnes (1.2m bags).
Dera rated the Parana crop, now 55% harvested, at 81% in “good” condition, with 17% deemed satisfactory and 2% “bad”.
Research institute Cepea on Thursday, estimating the arabica harvest at nearly 60% completed in Minas Gerais, backed ideas of a harvest marked by its small bean size, with “few reaching the upper sieve classification”.
It also noted a drop in quality from heavy rains early this month, which also delayed the Brazilian cane harvest, although drier weather is expected to bring “improvement” on this score.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/market-too-optimistic-on-brazil-arabica-crop-say-producers–8638.html)