Vietnamese coffee exports are expected to be sharply lower this season, after a severe drought during crop development turned into damaging rains come harvest time, but attentions are now turning to next harvest, with widely divergent views on prospects.
Vietnam coffee exports will be down 20-30% year-on-year this season, which runs till November, thanks to tight stocks, the head of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said on Sunday.
Vietnamese production was not only hurt by the worst drought in 30 years last year, but by unexpectedly heavy rainfall in December which could hit bean quality and production.
Hopes for a bumper crop
But those ample rains with hit production this year, could lead to bumpter crops next season, analyst Carlos Mera at Rabobank said.
“It rained a lot during the harvest,” Mr Mera told Agrimoney.
While this was bad news for the previous crop, it has left ample water supplies, and “vegetative growth has been very good due to extended rainfall”.
Mr Mera said that the outlook was “very positive for the next harvest”.
“This makes me believe it could be a record crop.”
Vicofa sees falling output
But Vicofa sees Vietnam’s 2017-18 forecast sees production falling from the 24.3m bag estimate for 2016-17, made by the Agriculture ministry.
The Vicofa estimates are based on falling acreage, due to the widespread renewal of aging plantations.
“It claims that falling prices in 2014 and 2015 had prompted many growers to neglect their coffee plantations or to switch to growing other products,” Commerzbank reported in a note this week.
But as Commerzbank points out, Vicofa “is notoriously sceptical”.
And Mr Mera at Rabobank was also doubtful. “It would be surprised if there are a lot of plantations being replanted,” he said.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/ample-water-supplies-raise-hopes-vietnamese-coffee-crop–10534.html)